France vs Spain

The first semi-final pairs the tournament’s two most complete sides, and the market can barely separate them. France arrive off a controlled 2-0 dismantling of Morocco; Spain ground past Belgium 2-1 after edging Portugal 1-0 in the round of 16.

The case for the tip

Look at how these teams have won, not just that they’ve won. Spain’s knockout victories have come by a single goal, built on possession suffocation — their matches shrink as the stakes rise. France under pressure default to structure: the Morocco win was a masterclass in conceding nothing. Semi-finals between elite defensive units are historically low-scoring, and both managers will treat the first goal as the match.

Team news to watch

Confirm both line-ups an hour out. If either side loses a first-choice centre-back, the under weakens — this tip is a bet on two intact defensive structures.

Verdict

Under 2.5 goals around 1.90 is the disciplined play. If you need a side, France draw-no-bet appeals more than the straight win at these prices — the market’s 40/30/30 read on this match looks about right, which is exactly why the goals market beats the 1X2 here.